The Shovel
January 29, 2010
3:00pm. I return home from an unsuccessful attempt at buying a snow shovel at the local Lowe’s. I call the local Wal-Mart – no luck – no shovels. I lob a call in to the local non-chain hardware store – same story. They suggest the local Feed & Seed store. Sounds good to me – I make the call. Shovel delivery expected at 5pm.
4:45pm. I call Feed & Seed to check on any revised shovel delivery expectations. I’m told they’re still waiting. I jokingly ask if there’s a line out the door – I get the very serious response that I’d better get there if I want a shovel. Ugh.
4:47pm. I make the quick decision to go before the snow begins – a snow that is going to last 24 hours straight. I look outside – snow begins at that very moment. Oh snap! Better hurry.
4:50pm. Traffic is thick and frantic – looks more like Manhattan than North Carolina. We wend our respective ways slowly and with determination.
5:17pm. I arrive at Feed & Seed – no place to park, place is jammed. After circling, I snag a parallel parking spot on a slippery slope – I navigate carefully and do not crush the Mini behind me.
5:22pm. I approach the front doors – there is a line snaking around the entire interior of the store. Whoa. I step away to reflect on whether this is really worth it. I remember the foot of snow forecasted.
5:23pm. I conclude that bailing today won’t clear tomorrow’s snow. I make my way back to the end of the line. I am far from the last after only 5 minutes.
5:24pm. I snap a picture of the line with my cell and send it to my husband – looking for amazement and perhaps a little sympathy.
5:26pm. Eavesdropping reveals that not all are waiting for shovels – turns out sleds can only be found here as well. The whiny child in front of me won’t shut up about a sled.
5:35pm. It is impossible not to hear the conversations in the line – as it turns out, many of the people in line are waiting for sleds, which we learn are also in short supply.
5:37pm. Sleds are running out – only 6 left. The kid in front of me resumes whining loudly, despite his mother’s reassurances that he can use a trash can lid as a sled – she says that’s what she did as a little girl. He whimpers that he doesn’t want a trash can lid, he wants a sled. Other children in the line look anxious as well.
5:38pm. The manager announces that the last sled has been sold, but reassures everyone that there will be more sleds tomorrow. The kid in front of me is heartbroken – bursts into tears. Families begin streaming out.
5:39pm. Only the shovel shoppers remain. The manager now announces to the entire store that there are four shovels left. I am second in line. I raise my hand and hop up and down so that the manager will see me and know that I am there for a shovel and that one of them is therefore spoken for. The manager acknowledges me and earmarks a shovel for me. The once orderly line is now dissolving into disarray. I remain vigilant. Where there was formerly one line, in which I was second, there are now line busters who rush the counter. Chaos reigns.
5:40pm. The clerk rings up a shovel purchase for the woman who was in the line in front of me. The manager evidently forgets that he had announced remaining shovels and had earmarked one for me, and announces once again that there are three shovels left. The line busters try to claim my shovel. I speak up, all the while waving my arm and hopping a bit, as I am eclipsed by taller people: “Sir…sir! I was waiting in the line…sir..!” I am anxious for the woman in front of me to finish writing her check so that I can get to the counter (who writes checks anymore?).
5:40:23pm. Two of the interlopers have claimed and purchased two of the remaining three shovels at a register that popped up out of nowhere to transact with the counter-rushing line-jumpers. Another clerk behind the counter points out to the (perhaps) senile manager that I had indeed been in the line (he didn’t even bother to tell him that he had already acknowledged me moments before – I guess this happens a lot), and that by rights, that shovel was mine. The manager hands it over the counter to me. I am still waiting for the check writer who nearly cost me the fruits of my labor. I clutch the shovel in my sweaty palms, aware that all eyes are upon me, holder of the last shovel.
5:40:33pm. I approach the counter, treasured shovel in hand, cash clutched in the other. I have no idea how much they are charging for these – and I don’t care. I can’t be sure, but this place doesn’t look like it takes cards of any kind– I will pay in cash so as to ensure the transaction.
5:40:59pm. Transaction completed. I am now the victorious owner of the Last Shovel in Town. I feel a curious mixture of self-consciousness, guilt, mild disgust (with the line crashers), relief, and, dare I say, satisfaction. I head home.
Honey, does this make me look fat?
Uhh…yes?
Well, that’s the conversation that should have happened between each Arizona Cardinal and his significant other before these uniforms went on public display.
I watched the Cardinals and Vikings play last night with my husband and the first thing I noticed was that the Cardinal uniforms looked, well, weird. When the camera closed in for a shot of players from and on the sidelines, it wasn’t pretty for Arizona. Nearly every player looked like he was squeezed into too-tight, head-to-toe red spandex.
I am not sure why these uniforms have this effect, and it is pretty hard to spot in the highlight reels I found on the internet, mainly because they are mostly shot from 50,000 feet, where instead, it looks like Arizona is playing in their pajamas or union suits. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_suit)
Sepatated at birth?
At any rate, here’s the best video I found: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d814c591f/Cardinals-30-Vikings-17 See what you think.
The Sound of Silence
I had an interesting conversation with my husband this morning on the way to the gym. I was telling him about an article I read yesterday discussing introversion and extroversion which stated that there are actually more introverts than extroverts in the US – witty guy that he is, he responded with “and that’s as it should be”. He’s primarily extroverted, so my natural response to this was “huh?” His response: “Think how noisy the world would be otherwise!”
So this got me thinking about the article and its assertions – I did a little research to verify that introvert population percentage, which I had always heard was lower. Google searches yield numbers ranging from 25% to 30% of the population being introverts, whereas the article states that: Research analyzing the results from a national representative sample of 3,009 people who have taken the Myers Briggs test shows that introverts actually outnumber extroverts, 50.8% to 49.3%. More men (54.1%) than women (47.5%) are introverted.
I just confirmed that 50.8% of the population is indeed introverted, per Myers Briggs tests – here is the table the author used:
The Sixteen Types
U.S. Population Breakdown
The table organizing the sixteen types was created by Isabel Myers (an INFP).
ISTJ 11.6%
ISFJ 13.8%
INFJ 1.5%
INTJ 2.1%
ISTP 5.4%
ISFP 8.8%
INFP 4.3%
INTP 3.3%
ESTP 4.3%
ESFP 8.5%
ENFP 8.1%
ENTP 3.2%
ESTJ 8.7%
ESFJ 12 .3%
ENFJ 2.4%
ENTJ 1.8%
Estimated percentages of the 16 types in the American population using inferential statistics. The figures above are from a random sampling of 3009 people culled from a total pool of 16,000 using the 1998 MBTI Form M. The individuals whose form results were used in this random sampling were not provided with the data to verify or question their accuracy. But these numbers do provide a working base on which to build further understanding and development of the model as extrapolated to larger populations.
It came from this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator#Lifestyle:_Judgment_.28J.29_.2F_Perception_.28P.29 Of course, this discrepancy makes me wonder whether introverted people (as measured by this test) self-report themselves as extroverts for some reason…
In this same article, the writer references author Wendy Gelberg, herself a self-described introvert, who makes an observation about society that states: “We tend to feel that extroversion is the gold standard, that it’s more ‘normal,’ “she says. “But that’s because it’s all we see, on TV and elsewhere. After all, a television show about someone just sitting quietly or reading a book wouldn’t draw many viewers. And then, as introverts, we don’t get together and share our experiences, so we assume we’re all alone.”
Further research yielded this gem, a 2003 Atlantic article: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200303/rauch. It starts like this:
“Do you know someone who needs hours alone every day? Who loves quiet conversations about feelings or ideas, and can give a dynamite presentation to a big audience, but seems awkward in groups and maladroit at small talk? Who has to be dragged to parties and then needs the rest of the day to recuperate? Who growls or scowls or grunts or winces when accosted with pleasantries by people who are just trying to be nice?
“If so, do you tell this person he is “too serious,” or ask if he is okay? Regard him as aloof, arrogant, rude? Redouble your efforts to draw him out?
“If you answered yes to these questions, chances are that you have an introvert on your hands—and that you aren’t caring for him properly. Science has learned a good deal in recent years about the habits and requirements of introverts. It has even learned, by means of brain scans, that introverts process information differently from other people (I am not making this up). If you are behind the curve on this important matter, be reassured that you are not alone. Introverts may be common, but they are also among the most misunderstood and aggrieved groups in America, possibly the world.
“I know. My name is Jonathan, and I am an introvert.”
This article has drawn more traffic than any other article on the Atlantic’s website. Who knew that there was such interest in this topic?
There is also a follow up interview with the author, which you’ll find here: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200602u/introverts. He believes that the digital economy has had a leveling effect, which allows introverts to create, and at the same time, to keep to themselves: “I do think that there’s been, in the last ten years or so, a major economic resurgence for introversion—the “geek” economy. The prototypical geek is really good at thinking, has superb powers of concentration (which tends to be an introvert trait), and works very well independently. They’re often pretty awesomely brilliant people, and they’re fairly defiant about being geeks. They’ve turned this word “geek” into a term that’s almost romantic in some ways, and through the Silicon economy, they’ve been massively innovative and economically important. A lot of them are running circles around the extroverts who are selling shoes. So I think part of what’s happened lately is that the digital economy is giving introverts a new place in the sun.”
This testing and classification is, of course, all based on Jung’s Psychological Types, which has both its proponents (Myers Briggs) and its detractors (http://skepdic.com/myersb.html ). I know that personally, I enjoy a mix of outward and inward facing action; I believe that they feed each other and help keep us balanced. I have, however, known people from whom extracting conversation was excruciating, and people who chatter endlessly, never appreciating the sound of silence – I am sure these extremes exist. I am less sure of the validity of conveniently putting people into “type” boxes as a shorthand to understanding their respective complexities…
Finally – Venture Capital Explained!
I like this!
Cry Me a River
It’s hard to make goats cry…
Dude, I’m Serious – Where’s My $50 Billion?
This is a follow on to an earlier post: http://www.deborahwright.com/2009/07/dude-wheres-my-50-billion/
I just read that GM is drawing down more of its $50 billion taxpayer-funded bailout escrow fund. This made me wonder again about that great big $50 billion loan we, the taxpayers, made a year ago. At that point, it was to a loan to tide the company through tough times – then times got tougher, and bankruptcy ensued.
The chapter 11 restructuring of GM left them owing the US taxpayers $6.7 billion, and left the taxpayers with 61% ownership of GM. The new GM stock is not yet publicly traded, meaning the value of that ownership is not known. But in order for the taxpayers to break even, the value of GM would need to be somewhere around $70 billion – at its peak, in 2000, GM was worth around $56 billion. Does $70 billion for a smaller GM (losing Pontiac, Hummer, Saab, and Saturn) seem likely in the face of falling worldwide demand and slow economies?
As I was writing this, I learned that the Government Accountability Office released a report today that basically concurs with the above. You can read it here: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d10151.pdf
GM said earlier that it was hoping to raise capital in the public markets as early as next year – but will the markets be receptive, or will GM be in for another go at the trough? As I write this, I wonder why more people aren’t talking about these bailouts – have we simply become numb by the magnitude of it all?
Double Vision
If you have ever known an identical twin, you know how disorienting this can be:
Are We There Yet?
I read a really interesting blog post by Barry Ritholtz today, explaining why he believes we aren’t anywhere near the housing bottom yet. He gives these as the main reasons:
• Prices: By just about every measure, Home prices on a national basis remain elevated. They are now far off their highs, but are still remain about ~15% above their historic metrics. I expect prices will continue lower for the next 2-4 quarters, if not longer, and won’t see widespread Real increases for many years after that; Indeed, I don’t expect to see nominal increases for anytime soon;
• Mean Reversion: As prices revert back towards historical means, there is the very high probability that they will careen past the median. This is the pattern we see after extended periods of mispricing. Nearly all overpriced asset classes revert not merely to their historic trend line, but typically collapse far below them. I have no reason to believe Housing will be any different;
• Employment & Wages: The rate of Unemployment is very likely to continue to rise for the next 4-8 quarters, if not longer. This removes an increasing number of people from the total pool of potential home buyers. There is another issue — Wages, and they have been flat for the past decade (negative in Real terms), crimping the potential for families to trade up to larger houses — a big source of Real Estate activity. Plus, more unemployment means more . . .
• Foreclosures: We likely have not seen the peak in defaults, delinquencies and foreclosures. Many more foreclosures — which are healthy in the long run but wrenching during the process of dislocation — are very likely. These will pressure prices yet lower. And Loan Mods are not working — they are redefaulting in less than a year between 50-80%, depending upon the mod conditions themselves.
• Inventory: There is a substantial supply of “Shadow Inventory” out there which will postpone a recovery in Home prices for a significant period of time. These are the flippers, speculators, builders and financers that are sitting with properties that they do not want to bring back to market yet. Given the extent of the speculative activity during the boom years (2002-06), and the number of foreclosures so far, my back of the envelope estimates are there are anywhere from 1.5 million to as many as 3 million additional homes that could come to market if prices were more advantageous.
• Psychology: The investing and home owning public are shell shocked following the twin market crashes and the Housing collapse. First the dot com collapse (2000-03) saw the Nasdaq drop about 80%, then the Credit Crisis of 2008 saw the unprecedented near halving of the market in about a year. Last, Homes nationally have lost about a third of their value since the 2005-06 peak. Total losses to the family balance sheet of these three events are about $25 trillion dollars. These losses not only crimp the ability to make bigger purchases, it dramatically curtails the willingness to take on more debt and leverage. Speaking of which . ..
• Debt Service/Down Payment: Far too many Americans do not have 20% to put down on a home, have poor credit scores, and way too much debt. All of these things act as an impediment to buying a home. At the same time, to get approved for a mortgage, banks are tightening standards, including 1) requiring higher Loan to Values for purchases; 2) better credit scores to get approved for a mortgages; 3) Lower levels of overall debt servicing relative to income for applicants. Yes, the NAR Home Affordability Index shows houses as “more affordable,” but it conveniently ignores these real world factors.
Deleveraging: For the first time in decades, the American consumer is in the process of saving money and deleveraging their balance sheets. After a 40 year credit binge, its long overdue. The process is likely to go on for years, as a new generation is losing confidence in the stock market, Corporate America and their government. Think back to the post-Depression generation that were big savers, modest consumers, who eschewed credit and borrowing. The damage is going to take a while to repair.
You can read the entire article here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/why-housing-isnt-yet-bottoming/
Dude, Where’s My $50 Billion?
GM emerged from bankruptcy today. It was announced with all the expected fanfare, CEO Fritz Henderson saying: “This is an exciting day for General Motors, one that will allow every employee, including me, to get back to the business of designing, building and selling great cars and trucks and serving the needs of our customers.” I heard tidbits of his speech on the news this morning, as well as an interview with Frank Langfitt of NPR, who analyzed the announcement. The show’s host went on to ask Mr. Langfitt:
“… is there any chance the taxpayers are going to get their $50 billion back?”
To which he responded: “Well, this is a tough one, Steve. The government has said it wants to get out of GM as fast as it can. It doesn’t want to be the owner of a big car company. And they are looking to make an initial public stock offering next year. Now this could be really good for GM – get them out of public ownership, and hopefully any meddling from politicians, but not necessarily so good for us the taxpayer, because as you were just noting before, the company has just come out of bankruptcy. In order for us to make all that money back, the value of the company would just have to explode in a very short period of time, and that seems highly unlikely, so we’re likely to lose a fair bit of this investment.” (You can hear the analysis here: http://tinyurl.com/n4kfd6)
I was surprised to hear this. You’ll recall that in August last year, GM was promised a $50 billion US Treasury loan for the development of more fuel-efficient cars. I looked for confirmation that GM was not paying back this loan. I found the story on CNN, where Mr. Henderson said: “We deeply appreciate the support we’ve received. We’ll work hard to repay the trust, and the money, that so many have invested in GM.”
I was shocked by the next sentence (but I guess I wasn’t surprised) “But he said he couldn’t promise that GM would repay the $50 billion the government has already given or promised to GM. “Our performance over time will determine if the taxpayers are made whole,” he said.” (You can read the article here: http://tinyurl.com/mc3nsp)
Am I the only one scratching my head here?
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